5 reasons Apple may make a car五大理由:苹果有可能要造汽车Bernsteins Toni Sacconaghi is not convinced Apple will actually get into the automobile manufacturing business, but hes pretty sure theyre interested. In a note to clients Tuesday, he offered five reasons why:华尔街券商Sanford C. Bernstein的分析师托尼·萨康纳姆并不相信苹果公司不会会投身于汽车制造业,但他可以认同的是,苹果对这个很感兴趣。本周二发给客户的报告中,萨康纳姆回应得出了以下五个理由:Reason 1:The auto sector offers a uniquely large, addressable market for Apple, with over $1 trillion in annual sales. Given that the vast majority of Apples growth in recent years has been driven by the iPhone, and that the high-end of the smartphone market is projected to have a tepid growth outlook, the auto market provides a huge, incremental market opportunity that could move the needle for Apple going forward.理由一:汽车业年销售额多达1万亿美元,对苹果来说是个尤其可观,而且具备可行性的市场。

近几年苹果绝大部分销售快速增长都由iPhone夹住,而高端智能手机市场未来快速增长预计将上升,与此同时汽车市场获取了稳步增长的极大商机,可助苹果业绩急剧下降。Reason 2:Apple is a product company and has historically been undaunted by entering established markets. Apples focus has been on making premium, differentiated products and has taken on established competitors, many with deep RD pockets理由二:苹果是一家产品平等主义的企业,从历史上看,它从不惧怕转入已发育完善的市场。苹果仍然专心于生产溢价低的差异化产品,勇敢与业内的强大输掉竞争,其中不少输掉都在研发方面投放重金。

Reason 3:Tesla has upended the auto industry on a relatively shoestring budget. Apple has nearly limitless financial resources.理由三:特斯拉仅有用较小的支出就政治宣传了汽车行业,而苹果享有源源不断的资金反对。Reason 4:Although auto industry margins are middling, Apples premium-priced products have historically enabled it to command a disproportionate share of industry profits.理由四:尽管汽车业的利润只正处于中等水平,但苹果一向擅长于回头高价产品路线,而且总能凭此策略赚到回头行业大部分利润。


Reason 5:Significant car manufacturing capacity is likely to develop in China over the next few years, which we believe Apple may be able to leverage to subcontract manufacturing/assembly of a car.理由五:今后几年,中国的汽车生产能力未来将会步入大发展。我们指出,苹果有可能借势以外包在方式在中国生产或装配汽车。So are we convinced Apple is making a car? Sacconaghi asks. And then he answers his own question:那么,否能相信苹果将生产汽车?萨康纳姆问道。


他的问是:No, in part because Apple is typically very patient in bringing a product to market, and will ultimately only do so if it believes it has an offering that is truly distinctive. A lot needs to be occur for anyone (including Apple) to know whether that will indeed transpire, particularly since Apples historical feature absolutism points to an Apple car that would very likely be all-electric and likely autonomous, both of which require significant technology and regulatory hurdles to be scaled.无法确认。原因之一就是,苹果引新产品时会很慎重。只有指出自己的新产品确实独一无二时,苹果才不会推向市场。

要辨别苹果究竟不会会发售汽车,还得多仔细观察各种迹象,目前任何人都很难中奖,苹果自己有可能也未确认。特别是在是考虑到苹果在产品方面一贯改信意味著要有特色,如果苹果真要建汽车,很有可能是显电动车而且有可能是无人驾驶汽车,要做这两点必须强劲的技术实力,还得横跨监管方面的障碍。Wrong as usual, tweets Asymcos Horace Dediu (referring to Sacconaghi, I hope, and not me). His point: Apple only enters a business if it believes it can make a meaningful contribution, i.e. uncovering and solving an unmet job to be done. The profit comes from solving an unmet job, he says. Theres an ocean of money waiting for those who do.注目移动产业的Asymco博主、著名苹果分析师贺拉斯?德迪欧在Twitter上对本文评论道:像整天一样辨别犯规。